Impact of new technologies by 2030
According to the 2012 report, Global Trends 2030: Alternate Worlds, published by the US National Intelligence Council, four areas of technology will shape global economic, social, and military developments by 2030. They are information technology, automation and manufacturing technologies, health and resource technologies. technologies.
Information technology
Three technological developments with an IT focus have the power to change the way we will live, do business and protect ourselves before 2030.
1. Solutions for the storage and processing of large amounts of data, including “big data”, will provide greater opportunities for governments and commercial organizations to “get to know” their customers better. The technology is here, but customers can object to the collection of so much data. In any case, these solutions will likely herald an upcoming North American economic boom.
2. Social networking technologies help individual users to form social networks online with other users. They are becoming part of the fabric of existence online, as leading services integrate social functions into everything else a person could do online. Social media enables useful and dangerous communications across diverse user groups and geopolitical boundaries.
3. Smart cities are urban environments that take advantage of information technology-based solutions to maximize economic productivity and citizens’ quality of life while minimizing resource consumption and environmental degradation.
Automation and manufacturing technologies
As manufacturing has gone global over the past two decades, a global ecosystem of manufacturers, suppliers, and logistics companies has formed. New manufacturing and automation technologies have the potential to change work patterns in both the developed and developing world.
1. Robotics is used today in a variety of civil and military applications. More than 1.2 million industrial robots are already in daily operations around the world and there are increasing applications for non-industrial robots. The US military has thousands of robots on the battlefields, domestic robots vacuum houses and mow lawns, and hospital robots patrol the corridors and distribute supplies. Its use will increase in the coming years, and with enhanced cognitive abilities, robotics could be hugely disruptive to today’s global supply chain system and traditional work assignments along supply chains.
2. 3D printing (additive manufacturing) technologies allow a machine to build an object by adding one layer of material at a time. 3D printing is already used to make models from plastics in sectors such as consumer products and the automotive and aerospace industries. By 2030, 3D printing could replace some of the conventional mass production, particularly for short production runs or where mass customization has a high value.
3. Autonomous vehicles are mainly used today in the military and for specific tasks, for example in the mining industry. By 2030, autonomous vehicles could transform military operations, conflict resolution, transportation, and geo-prospecting, while presenting new security risks that could be difficult to address. At the consumer level, Google has been testing a driverless because.
Resource technologies
Technological advances will be needed to accommodate the growing demand for resources due to the growth of the world’s population and economic advances in today’s underdeveloped countries. These advances can affect the food, water and energy nexus by improving agricultural productivity through a wide range of technologies, including precision agriculture and genetically modified crops for food and fuel. New resource technologies can also improve water management through desalination and irrigation efficiency; and increasing energy availability through better oil and gas extraction and alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power and biofuels. Widespread communication technologies will make the potential effect of these technologies on the environment, climate and health well known to increasingly educated populations.
Health technologies
Two sets of health technologies are highlighted below.
1. Disease management will be more effective, more personalized and less costly thanks to new enabling technologies such as pathogen detection and diagnostic devices. For example, molecular diagnostic devices will provide a rapid means of testing for both genetic and pathogenic diseases during surgeries. The readily available genetic tests will speed up the diagnosis of the disease and help physicians decide the optimal treatment for each patient. Advances in regenerative medicine are almost certain to parallel these developments in diagnostic and treatment protocols. Replacement organs, such as the kidneys and liver, could be developed by 2030. These new disease management technologies will increase the longevity and quality of life of the world’s aging populations.
2. Human augmentation technologies, ranging from prosthetic and motorized implants and exoskeletons to brain enhancements, could enable civilians and the military to work more efficiently and in previously inaccessible environments. Older people can benefit from motorized exoskeletons that assist users with simple activities of walking and lifting, improving the health and quality of life of aging populations. Progress in human augmentation technologies will likely face moral and ethical challenges.
conclusion
The US National Intelligence Council report states that “a shift in the technological center of gravity from West to East, which has already begun, is almost certain to continue as the flows of companies, ideas, entrepreneurs and Capital from the developed world to the developing world. Markets are increasing. ” I am not convinced that this change occurs “almost certainly”. While the East, particularly Asia, will likely see the most technological applications, current innovations are mainly occurring in the West. And I don’t think it is a safe bet that the center of gravity of technological innovation shifts to the East.